Manchester derby: United own the history, City the Guardiola era

Old Trafford, 13/09/2026: United 0-1 City, in the 199th Manchester derby. City played with 10 men from the 23rd minute, when Foden was sent off, and won through Haaland's goal in the 60th minute. VAR, the video assistant referee, took nearly 3 minutes to confirm the goal. It was the first derby for Enzo Maresca, appointed City head coach on 29/06/2026.

Each club told the story its own way. For City, Foden was shown red for reacting to a kick in his back from Bruno Fernandes; for United and for the Reuters agency, Foden kicked out at Fernandes. On the goal, United's report says City's Enzo Fernández appeared clearly offside and tried to play the ball. City's account speaks of an offside check, until the goal was confirmed.

Haaland's goal followed the rule the derby keeps repeating in the Soccer Addicted archive: whoever scores first almost always wins. In the 47 games it holds, from 14/03/2004 to 13/09/2026, the side that opened the scoring won 88% of the games with a goal (36 of 41). This comparison measures City and United with the same ruler to answer who comes out on top in City v United, and by which criterion.

The archive holds both clubs' games from January 2004, and its first derby is the one on 14/03/2004, in the 2003/04 Premier League (the FA Cup tie of 14/02/2004 is not there). That makes 47 derbies up to 13/09/2026, counted on 02/10/2026. Missing are 11 that the statistics site 11v11 lists for the period. They are 6 in the League Cup, a separate knockout competition; 2 in the Community Shield, the English FA's season-opening match; 2 in the FA Cup; and the one on 03/03/2024, in the Premier League.

Who has more wins in the Manchester derby up to 2026: United, on both counts

Up to 13/09/2026, United lead the head-to-head on both counts, by 17 or 18 wins. There have been 199 competitive games, and the counts differ on only one: the Community Shield of 10/08/2024. It finished 1-1 in normal time, and City won 7-6 in the penalty shoot-out, the series of spot kicks that settles a tie. City count that game as a win; Wikipedia, as a draw. From 2004 to 2026, City are ahead.

What this tells us: in the 199 games up to 13/09/2026, United have 81 wins on both counts, and from 14/03/2004 to 13/09/2026 City won more, both on the 11v11 list (27 to 24) and in the archive (22 to 18). One possible reading is that United's lead was built before 14/03/2004, and that City, ahead in that period, cut only 3 wins off the gap, on the 11v11 list with City's count (2 with Wikipedia's).

Before, with and after Guardiola: the Manchester derby in four eras

Guardiola made his City debut on 13/08/2016 and took charge of his last game for the club on 24/05/2026. Ferguson announced he was leaving United on 08/05/2013. With those dates, the 47 games in the archive fall into four eras. Before Guardiola, from 14/03/2004 to 20/03/2016, there were 26 games and 11 wins for each side. With him, from 10/09/2016 to 17/01/2026, there were 20 games, with 10 City wins and 7 United wins.

What this tells us: in the archive, after Ferguson (22/09/2013 to 13/09/2026), City won 14 of the 27 games and United 9; under Guardiola, City had 10 wins in 20 derbies, and on the 11v11 list, which includes the cups and the 2024 Community Shield as a City win, 14 in 27. This suggests, without proving it, that the balance shifted when Ferguson left, and that under Guardiola United stayed competitive: they won 35% of his derbies in the archive (7 of 20).

First goal and home advantage: whoever scores first wins 36 of 41 archive games

Of all the criteria in this comparison, the first goal looks to me like the one that best separates winners from losers. Of the 47 archive games, 6 ended 0-0. In the 41 with a goal, the side that scored first won 36, drew 1 and lost 4. City won 85% of the times they opened the scoring (22 of 26), and United 93% (14 of 15), without a single defeat.

What this tells us: in the archive, the side that opened the scoring won 88% of the games with a goal (36 of 41), and all 4 defeats for the side that went ahead were City's. One possible reading is that, from 2004 to 2026, the derby was a game decided by the first punch, and that the comebacks, when they came, were United's.

The four comebacks in the archive all belong to United: 12/04/2015, 07/04/2018, 14/01/2023 and 15/12/2024, three of them against Guardiola's City. On 07/04/2018, City led 2-0 at half-time, and Pogba scored 2 goals in 97 seconds, according to the Premier League. City did not come from behind in any of the 47 games, but they did in one the archive lacks: City 3-1 United on 03/03/2024, when Rashford opened the scoring.

Home advantage, by contrast, does not show up in the numbers. In the 47 archive games, the home side and the away side won 20 each, with 7 draws. City lost 10 of the 24 games in which they were at home, and United 10 of 23. The match record also lists City as the home side in the 2 FA Cup games in the archive, on 16/04/2011 and 03/06/2023.

What this tells us: in the archive, the home side won 43% of the games (20 of 47), the same share as the away side, and City won more as visitors (10 of 23) than United did at home (8 of 23). This suggests, without proving it, that in the derby the stadium mattered less than each team's form.

The Manchester derbies both fan bases remember, from 1994 to 2026

Each fan base keeps its own derbies, and the list below puts both side by side, from 1994 to 2026. One famous Ferguson line, however, came from a different question. According to The Independent of 19/09/2009, Ferguson was asked whether United would ever go into a derby as underdogs and replied: "Not in my lifetime". A City page tells it as an answer about City finishing above United, and the newspaper's account does not say that.

What this tells us: on the list, the 2 FA Cup finals gave 1 trophy to each side, and the 2 biggest margins, of 5 goals, are split too: United 5-0 City on 10/11/1994 and United 1-6 City on 23/10/2011. One possible reading is that, in the games people remember, neither fan base is left without a reply.

Who comes out on top in City v United, criterion by criterion

Criterion by criterion, each fan base leaves with its own argument in numbers. United's is history: 81 wins in 199 games up to 13/09/2026, on both counts, and the 4 comebacks in the archive, against 1 for City, outside it. City's is the period after Ferguson: in the archive, 14 wins to 9, and 10 to 7 under Guardiola. In my reading, none of these criteria weighs as much as the first goal, which gave victory to whoever scored it in 36 of 41 archive games.

On 02/10/2026, the Premier League table had City 1st, with 15 points from 5 games, and United 12th, with 5. Maresca, appointed on 29/06/2026, had won all 5; Carrick, made permanent on 22/05/2026 after finishing 3rd in 2025/26, had won 1. On 29/09/2026, an independent Premier League Commission found City guilty of breaching the league's financial rules between 2009/10 and 2017/18. The club appealed on 01/10/2026, and as of 02/10/2026 no sanction had been announced.

The next Premier League derby was scheduled, as of 02/10/2026, for 20/03/2027, at the Etihad, with City at home and the date subject to change. A history of 199 games does not change hands in one match, and the Guardiola era has closed its account. So the question for that Saturday is a shorter one: who scores first?