Premier League relegation: 40 points were enough in 21 of 21 seasons

No club went down from the Premier League with 40 points in the 21 complete seasons in the Soccer Addicted archive, from 2004/05 to 2025/26, without 2023/24. The last club to escape, the one in 17th place, just above the relegation zone, averaged 37.3 points. The best relegated team is the club with the most points among those that went down. It topped out at 39: Birmingham in 2010/11 and West Ham in 2025/26.

If your team is near the bottom of the table, this page answers the question you ask every matchday: how many points keep you up? The answer comes from a calculation of its own. It uses the final tables of 118 complete seasons of six leagues, worked out from the archive's scores on 9 October 2026. With them, the guide tests each country's magic number: 40 in England, Italy and Germany, 42 in Spain and France, and 45 in Brazil.

In the Premier League, Serie A and the Bundesliga, 40 was enough in every season of the window. In LaLiga and Ligue 1, not even 42 was a guarantee. In the Brasileirão, 45 was enough in 18 of 19 and once tied with the best relegated team. The lowest number that was enough in every season is 40 in the Premier League and Serie A, 35 in the Bundesliga, 44 in LaLiga, 45 in Ligue 1 and 46 in the Brasileirão. The window for the European leagues leaves out 2023/24; outside it, West Ham went down with 42 in 2002/03.

How the calculation was made: 118 complete seasons of six leagues

The calculation uses only scores. Each final table comes from the archive's results, with 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw, plus the point deductions that have a source. It covers 21 seasons of the Premier League, 20 of LaLiga, 20 of Serie A, 20 of the Bundesliga, 18 of Ligue 1 and 19 of the Brasileirão. Add Luton in 2023/24 (26 points), which sits outside the count, and the average for 18th place in the Premier League from 2004/05 to 2024/25 is 33.5, the same figure Opta Analyst published on 27 April 2026.

Seasons that the archive holds only in part, or with a match missing, are left out. 2023/24 is not included in any league, because the archive has only about half of its matches. The 2019/20 Ligue 1 season was cut short. In Ligue 1 2025/26 and in the Brasileirão 2005 and 2016, one match is missing. The 2026/27 season is still in progress. None of them goes into the averages.

Points to stay up, league by league: the number that was enough across the window

A number was enough in a season when the best relegated team scored less than it. The lowest number that was enough in every season of the window runs from 35 points, in the Bundesliga, to 46, in the Brasileirão. The table gives three numbers per league: the lowest that was enough in every season, the lowest that was enough in at least 9 of 10 seasons and the press number, always with the exact count. Raw totals are not comparable: the Bundesliga plays 34 matches, and four went down per season in Brazil, three in the Premier League.

What this tells us: the press number equals the one that was enough in every season in the Premier League and Serie A and exceeds it by 5 points in the Bundesliga. It sits 1 point below that number in the Brasileirão, 2 in LaLiga and 3 in Ligue 1. Inference: where it falls below that number, the press number has failed or tied with the best relegated team in at least one season of the window.

Premier League: 40 points were enough in 21 of 21 seasons

In the Premier League, 40 was enough in all 21 seasons, and in 86% of them (18 of 21) the last team to escape finished below it. Only three of those clubs reached 40 or more: Wolverhampton in 2010/11 and Watford in 2016/17, with 40, and Tottenham in 2025/26, with 41. Opta Analyst wrote on 27 April 2026 that the team in 18th place had reached 39 only once, Birmingham in 2010/11. The 2025/26 season ended afterwards, and West Ham went down with the same 39.

What this tells us: the best relegated team scored 39 points in 2010/11 and in 2025/26, and in the other 19 seasons it finished between 25 and 38. Inference: 40 worked as a safety ceiling, 1 point clear of the worst case in the window.

The 2006/07 line shows what a tie does: Wigan and Sheffield United finished the Premier League on 38 points each. The outcome came on 13 May 2007, on the last day, at Bramall Lane. Wigan won 2-1, with a penalty from David Unsworth in first-half stoppage time. Goal difference, the gap between goals scored and conceded (-22 against -23), sent Sheffield United down.

Outside the window, 40 has already failed. West Ham went down with 42 in 2002/03, the highest total for a relegated team in the 20-club era, according to the Premier League. BBC Sport, in May 2026, calculated across the league's 30 seasons of 38 games up to then that 40 was enough in 90% of them (27 of 30), a wider window than the archive's. The 2023/24 season, which the archive holds only in part, brought the opposite: Nottingham Forest escaped with 32 points, after losing 4 for breaching the financial rules.

The Premier League ladder: what each points total would have done

The ladder asks: with X points, in how many of the 21 seasons did the best relegated team score more than X? It describes the past, not a club's chance of going down. A number was enough when the best relegated team scored less. If it scored the same, the number was no guarantee: the club would have been level with the best relegated team, and the tiebreaker would have decided. The 37.3 average of the last team to escape does not make 37 safe. In 3 of the 21 seasons, the best relegated team scored more than 37.

What this tells us: across the 21 seasons from 2004/05 to 2025/26, the best relegated team scored more than 38 points in 2 and more than 36 in 4. Inference: from 38 to 36, the seasons in which the best relegated team scored more than the total double, from 2 to 4.

Six leagues side by side: 40 was enough in Serie A and the Bundesliga

Two measures make the comparison fair, and the table shows the average of the last team to escape, the maximum of the best relegated team and the points per game. The first divides the total by the matches: the Bundesliga has 34 per club, the others 38 (Ligue 1, 38 or 34). The second is the relegation play-off, used in the Bundesliga and, for part of the window, in Ligue 1. The club above the directly relegated sides plays the second division's 3rd-placed team: if it wins, it is the last to escape; if it loses, the club above counts.

What this tells us: the last team to escape scored 0.98 points per game in the Premier League and 0.97 in Serie A and the Bundesliga, despite raw totals of 37.3, 36.9 and 33.1. Inference: the Bundesliga only looks cheaper because it has 34 matches, not because it asks less of a team in each game.

In Serie A, 40 was enough in all 20 seasons, and in 16 of them (80%) the last team to escape finished below it. The best relegated team reached 39 at most, with Chievo in 2006/07. The Bundesliga is where 40 leaves the most to spare: the last team to escape averaged 33.1. The league itself called 40 a myth on 28 March 2022 and proposed 38. Per the Bundesliga, the 30-point mark became 40 after the three-point rule.

LaLiga and Ligue 1: not even 42 guaranteed safety

In Spain, the number in the press is 42, not 40: Goal.com España called it a mythical figure on 11 March 2023. In the archive, 42 was not enough in 1 of the 20 seasons, when Deportivo went down with 43 in 2010/11. The 42 tied with the best relegated team in 3: Zaragoza in 2007/08, Betis in 2008/09 and Mallorca in 2025/26, all with 42. The 40 failed in 5 and tied in 2. In all, 8 of the 60 relegated LaLiga clubs from 2005/06 to 2025/26 (without 2023/24) scored 40 points or more.

In France, the reference number in the 20-club years was 42, according to Orange Sports. In the archive, it failed 1 time in 18 seasons, 17 of them with 20 clubs: Monaco went down with 44 in 2010/11, the highest total for a relegated team in the window. The 40 failed 1 time and tied 2, with Lens in 2007/08 and Sochaux in 2013/14. With 18 clubs, Ligue1.com cites 37.6 as the average of the first non-relegated team over five seasons, and the archive has only one complete season like that, 2024/25.

Brasileirão: 45 was enough in 18 of 19 seasons

In Brazil, the number is 45, and in the window the best relegated team matched it once and never went past it. By the official table, it was enough in 18 of the 19 seasons (95%). In 2009, Coritiba went down with 45, the only tie with the best relegated team, and with 46 nobody went down in the window. Because four clubs went down each season, the last to escape is the 16th, and it averaged 43.3 points, or 1.14 per game. Below, the 19 seasons, one per row.

What this tells us: the last team to escape scored from 39 to 46 points, the best relegated team from 36 to 45, and in 4 seasons (2008, 2010, 2017 and 2020) the two finished on the same points. Inference: with 7 points between the lowest and the highest total of the last team to escape (39 and 46), the 43.3 average is a starting point, not a guarantee.

Two caveats apply to this 18 of 19. The first is the 2013 punishment: the STJD, Brazil's sports justice tribunal, took points from Portuguesa and Flamengo, and the ordinary courts tried to undo it in January 2014, without success. Without the punishment, 45 would have been enough in 17 of the 19 seasons, and the 46, enough in 19 of 19 by the official table, would only have tied in 2013. The second is the comparison with the Premier League (three go down there, four in the Brasileirão): per game, 45 is worth 1.18, against 1.05 for the English 40.

Point deductions: in 4 seasons they moved the line

A points deduction handed down by sports justice has almost never changed who went down. The archive has 15 seasons with a confirmed point loss, and in 13 of them the same clubs went down, with or without the punishment. In 4, the line depends on a punishment or on a sports justice decision. Juventus in 2005/06, with 91 points by the scores, went down by a sports justice decision and is left out of the best-relegated count.

What this tells us: in 2 of the 4 seasons the punishment changed who went down (2005/06 and 2013), and in the other 2 it only changed the number of the line (2012/13 and 2018). Inference: the table on the day of the last match can differ from today's, and the calculation has to say which of the two it uses.

Tiebreakers: each league has its own rule

The tiebreaker only comes into play when the two clubs on the line finish with the same points, and that happened 14 times in 118 seasons, counting the extra match of 2022/23. Two criteria appear in all six leagues: goal difference, which decided the Wigan and Sheffield United case, and head-to-head, the result of the matches between the two clubs. The order in which they apply changes from league to league.

What this tells us: after points, goal difference comes first in the Premier League and the Bundesliga, head-to-head in Serie A and LaLiga, overall goal difference in Ligue 1 and wins in the Brasileirão. Inference: check which criterion comes first in your league before counting your team's points.

Two cases have a story of their own. In Serie A 2022/23, Spezia and Verona finished on 31 points. The league scheduled an extra match: Verona won 3-1 on 11 June 2023, and Spezia went down. In LaLiga 2014/15, Granada, Eibar and Deportivo finished on 35. Eibar ended 18th, inside the relegation zone, but stayed in the top flight because Elche was relegated for debt, in a decision of 5 June 2015.

Down the home stretch: how to read your team's table

Start with the lowest number that was enough in every season of the window for your league: 40 in the Premier League and Serie A, 44 in LaLiga, 35 in the Bundesliga, 45 in Ligue 1 and 46 in the Brasileirão. That number describes the window and guarantees nothing. Compare your team with it and with the best relegated team in the window, not with the press number. The average of the last team to escape describes a typical year (37.3 in the Premier League). Check the rulebook for how many clubs go down and which criterion breaks ties.

The Premier League's margin fits in a small number. In the archive's 21 seasons, 40 was enough 21 times. In 2025/26, what separated going down from escaping was 2 points: West Ham finished on 39, and Tottenham on 41.