Sides in second beat the leader 60 times, then finished ahead in 28
A side in second that beat the leader finished the season ahead of it in 17 of 20 games at a one- or two-point gap, and in 2 of 20 at six points or more.
The side in second beat the leader in 60 games between the two. In 28 of those 60, the side in second finished the season above the leader, close to half. The leader finished above in 80 of the 86 it won.
The count covers 186 first-against-second games in seven leagues: the leader won 86, the side in second won 60 and 40 were draws. It spans 129 seasons in all.
The data come from the Soccer Addicted archive, the site's match database, from the 2004/05 season, which starts in 2004 and ends in 2005, to 2025/26. Each of the seven leagues is its country's top competition, and only seasons the archive holds in full were used. The count used the table before each game, the list of teams in order of points: three for a win, one for a draw, none for a loss. Only games where both sides had played five or more matches count.
The count split the games three ways: by points gap before the game, by stage of the season and by league. The gap showed the biggest difference. At one or two points, the side in second that won finished ahead in 17 of 20 games. At three to five, 9 of 20. At six points or more, 2 of 20.
What is at stake in Arsenal v Manchester City on 29 November?
On 2 November, Arsenal led Manchester City by three points in the archive table. In that three-to-five-point group, sides in second that won finished ahead in 9 of 20.
Illustration, not proof: Arsenal, six points clear, lost to City in April 2026, yet finished ahead. The table lists five games to come; the count covers only past games.
| Game | When | Points in the archive table on 2 November (leader first) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Manchester City (Premier League) | Sunday 29 November 2026, 16:30 (UK) | Arsenal 24, Manchester City 21 | 3 points |
| Atlético de Madrid v Barcelona (LaLiga) | Sunday 8 November 2026, 21:00 (Spain) | Barcelona 30, Atlético de Madrid 28 | 2 points |
| Palmeiras v Flamengo (Brasileirão) | Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:30 (Brasília) | Flamengo 73, Palmeiras 70 | 3 points |
| Lazio v Inter (Serie A) | Wednesday 6 January 2027, 20:45 (Italy) | Lazio 28, Inter 25 | 3 points |
| Paris Saint-Germain v Lille (Ligue 1) | Weekend of 17 April 2027, matchweek 28 | Paris Saint-Germain 20, Lille 18 | 2 points |
The table shows only where the two stood on 2 November, and other matchweeks come before Arsenal v Manchester City, so the gap can change.
Why is a game between first and second called a ‘six-pointer’?
Because the winner gains three points and the loser misses out on the three they would have taken, so the gap between them moves by six.
| Result of the game | The leader finished ahead | The side in second finished ahead |
|---|---|---|
| Leader won (86 games) | 80 of 86 | 6 of 86 |
| Draw (40 games) | 34 of 40 | 6 of 40 |
| Side in second won (60 games) | 32 of 60 | 28 of 60 |
| All games (186) | 146 of 186 | 40 of 186 |
In 32 of the 60, the leader still finished ahead. The side in second's margin of error, the range other games could give, is 35% to 59%, including half.
How did the results vary with the points gap before the game?
At one or two points, sides in second finished ahead in 17 of 20 games. At three to five, 9 of 20. At six or more, 2 of 20.
| Points gap before the game | Side in second won: finished ahead | Side in second won: passed the leader in the game | Leader won: finished ahead |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or 2 points | 17 of 20 | 20 of 20 | 16 of 17 |
| 3 to 5 points | 9 of 20 | 0 of 20 | 32 of 36 |
| 6 points or more | 2 of 20 | 0 of 20 | 32 of 33 |
| All gaps | 28 of 60 | 20 of 60 | 80 of 86 |
Sides in second that passed the leader in the game finished ahead in 17 of 20 games; the rest did so in 11 of 40. They passed the leader in the game only at one or two points, in all 20 games, and never at three or more, in the 40. In my reading, the “six-pointer” worked at once only there, partly because the win was enough, though finishing ahead also happened at larger gaps.
Did a win by the side in second count for less near the end of the season?
In the leader's last ten games, sides in second that won finished ahead in 11 of 30, against 17 of 30 before. Leaders that won in those ten finished ahead in 24 of 24. With so few games, the gap may be down to luck.
Did the numbers change from one league to another?
Yes, but the side in second won only 6 to 11 games per league, too few to compare. In the Premier League, they finished ahead in 4 of 10.
| League | Country | Games | Leader won: finished ahead | Draw: the side ahead finished ahead | Side in second won: finished ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | England | 25 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 10 |
| Brasileirão | Brazil | 29 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 11 |
| LaLiga | Spain | 27 | 13 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 6 |
| Serie A | Italy | 32 | 14 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 10 |
| Bundesliga | Germany | 28 | 13 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Ligue 1 | France | 24 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
| J1 League | Japan | 21 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 |
| All leagues | - | 186 | 80 of 86 | 34 of 40 | 28 of 60 |
Which games did the count leave out?
The count left out 33 games with the two level on points, so neither led, and seasons still under way. Bayern München's draw with Borussia Dortmund on 31 October was one: both arrived on 17. On 2 November both had 18, split only by the tiebreaker.
The count left out seasons incomplete in the archive, like 2023/24 in five leagues and Ligue 1 in 2019/20, and three not decided by points: Serie A 2005/06, redone in court, and J1 League 2015 and 2016, settled in a final stage.
What if the two finish the season on the same points?
In 4 of the 129 seasons, the champion and runner-up finished level on points. In the 2022/23 Bundesliga, Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund both had 71; Bayern München won on goal difference. See the rule each league uses when points are level.
Sides in second that won finished ahead in 28 of 60 games. How many points make a Premier League champion? The champions' points guide answers it.
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Frequently asked questions
- What is a six-pointer in football?
- A six-pointer is a game between direct rivals, such as first and second: the winner gains three points and the loser misses out on the three they would have taken, a swing of six. In 186 games between first and second in seven leagues, the leader that won finished the season ahead in 80 of 86, and the side in second that won in 28 of 60.
- Did the winner of a first-against-second game finish the season ahead?
- It depended on who won. In 186 games between the first- and second-placed teams in seven leagues, from 2004/05 to 2025/26, the leader that won finished the season ahead in 80 of 86, and the side in second that won in 28 of 60, close to half.
- Did the results differ with the points gap before a game between the leader and the side in second?
- Yes. At one or two points, the side in second that won finished ahead in 17 of 20 games; at three to five points, in 9 of 20; at six or more, in 2 of 20. The count covers 186 games in seven leagues, from 2004/05 to 2025/26.
- Did the first-against-second game count for less at the end of the season?
- In the leader's last ten games, the side in second that won finished ahead in 11 of 30, against 17 of 30 in the games before. There are few games, and the gap may be down to luck. The count covers 186 games in seven leagues, from 2004/05 to 2025/26.
- What happens if the leader and the second-placed side finish on the same points?
- Each league's tiebreaker decides. In 4 of the 129 seasons in the count, the champion and the second-placed side finished on the same points. In the Bundesliga in 2022/23, Bayern München finished ahead of Borussia Dortmund on goal difference, both with 71 points.
